America's Demographic Crisis

Is this thing real or hype?

The lead article on the digital version of The New York Times this morning was about China’s population falling for the first time in a year since the 1960s (more deaths than births), which is now creating a “demographic crisis.” That’s not necessarily surprising, as demographic experts were telling Joe Rogan that “China has 10 years left” semi-recently:

We’ve talked a ton in recent years about what’s happening with populations and fertility rates and all that. I’m not a scientist or a doctor or a “crack data guy” (is the term still “data ninja?”), but I do read things and watch things and write things and I have some views and links for you. Let’s see where we can end up.

First thing we know is that fertility (and thus, fertility rates) are declining in many industrialized societies.

We had a narrative for 2020 and part of 2021 that “COVID would change the working world…” That’s not really true. What COVID may have changed is our connection back to work, i.e. we realize a lot of work is bullshit. The next thing that’s going to actually change the working world is this fertility stuff, coupled with automation.

So, what now?