Can AOC Become The Female Obama?

Obviously she CAN, but obviously there's a whole bunch of challenges too.

This article from The Wrap, based on a couple of media hits where different people (all of whom call themselves “strategists”) say that AOC could be the future of the Democratic party, has gotten some attention on this St. Patrick’s Day Monday. I think the AOC concept as a whole is interesting, so let us break this down a little bit. Please note: I would never identify myself as a “strategist.”

The Obvious Idea Driving This

• Seems to speak to that middle place of “I hate Trump, but I stayed on the couch because Kamala seemed worse.”

• Younger

• In 2008, we had never had an African-American despite a few trying over the years. That felt like an important pivot moment re: recession and the war-hawk-y years of Bush and Cheney. This also feels like a pivot moment, and women haven’t been doing well in national elections, so there’s a natural comparison between Obama 2008 and AOC 2028 (2032?).

• She seems “savvy” in the modern moment, I.e. she can handle IG and X and TikTok and be where people get news and information and shape viewpoints, whereas some of her Democratic colleagues still deeply rely on getting into Washington Post or getting a snippet on 60 Minutes.

Among Those Factors…

… all have some relevant, but youth might be the most interesting one. As The Wrap article notes, a current under-30 voter has participated in three elections. Trump won 2, and Biden won the other. Both of those guys are over 75. There has been a good amount of discussion about gerontocracy in recent years, especially as it relates to more advanced tech and regulating AI, etc. Society might finally be ready for a non-fossil. (This is another potential Obama comparison.)

However, J.D. Vance is also relatively young