Could A Woman Win In 2028?

I mean, we'd hope there's at least a fighting chance after Trump's only two national victories came against "the fairer sex."

You want to believe that America entertains enough periods of “being vaguely progressive in its voting behavior” — even though the current “vibe shift” is in the other direction, or was and might be slowly creeping back towards center left — that we could eventually get a woman into office, just like (IDENTITY POLITICS ALERT!) we got an African-American male into office in 2008. Now, unfortunately, Obama has two legacies — the first is being “suave” and some version of “dignified” as a statesman, but the second legacy is that him serving in that role basically handed us Trump in so many ways.

It is still remarkable to me that Trump is 2–0 vs. women and 0–1 vs. a man in national elections. You kinda want it to represent more than it does, but it doesn’t represent as much as we think. Clinton should not have been the candidate in 2016 — her time was “supposed” to be 2008, but Obama got there better — and in reality, Bernie was the “tide of history” guy at that point. It is an interesting bar debate as to whether Bernie would have beaten Trump, and I’ve heard both arguments, but we will unfortunately never know.

In 2024, Kamala was a rushed and flawed candidate, and honestly, all the stuff about Biden and “WHEN DID THEY KNOW” might haunt the Democratic party for another decade. It’s sad, because Republicans also endeavor to cling to power (most people who seek power attempt to cling to power), but now any Republican can say “Well, look at what they did with Biden!” when cornered in a debate. Not a good look.

As for whether a woman can win in 2028, look, obviously I am talking on the Democratic side, because I think most rational people realize that the Republican side will be some mix of:

• J.D. Vance

• Don Jr.

• A third horse like Glenn Youngkin

So, the “R” side will likely be a man. I guess you can get Kristi Noem or Tulsi Gabbard in the discourse, but probably not. It’s likely a man on the red side.

Now, on the blue side, you have some possibilities, yes. Notably we’d be on: