Mobility | Migration | Fertility | Automation | Inflation
Five factors driving a lot of what's happening in America right now.
I’ve kicked tires on these types of topics for years now, so I’ll just summarize a couple of general things herein.
In 2020, during the initial throes of COVID, I was doing some work writing articles for an apartment locator service. They focused on the DFW area, so I wrote a lot of articles about that area and its growth from 2010 to 2020 (which was high), and migratory patterns from California to DFW and the east coast to DFW (which is what I did in my own life). It was interesting stuff. Data can be cool, you know? I wouldn’t call myself “data-driven” per se, but it was interesting.
I started thinking more about that stuff then, especially since almost everyone I know from the east coast lives on the east coast still and I don’t, and I also saw some stat around COVID saying that 78% of American women live within 18 miles of their mom, which makes sense given child care costs. Now, my ex-wife was living about 1,100 miles from her mom. We had no kids. My current wife, with whom I have no kids because my sperm is crap, lives within 12 miles of her mom. I guess I’m a lived statistic.
So then yesterday afternoon at some point, I watched this video:
Makes a lot of decent points.
So, let me take a couple of things from my headline and dance with ‘em.
Mobility
There does seem to be some stagnation in the good ol’ US of MAGA — wait, no, US of A. We love the “living in their parents’ basement” narrative, but beyond that culture war talking point, there is some evidence of a failure to launch problem.
Migration
This is happening, although it’s happening less than in previous generations. I think it seemed to happen a good deal in early COVID, but then some employers pushed back, or places like Boise and Bozeman got 5x more expensive overnight, so I think that trend might be waning. What’s interesting about the video above is that the entire migratory pattern of America was south to north for a long time, and now it’s basically north to south, or coastal to Sun Belt. That shift, which is driven by economics/taxes/some “woke-ism” stuff, has a huge political repercussion long-term. Texas is already purple in some respects. Could it ever be blue?
Fertility
Sadly, I have to think about this shit every day. But it’s in decline writ large, too.
We are below the replacement rate. And male sperm does seem to be getting worse, due to drinking, sedentary lifestyle, obesity, etc. There’s some trends here that aren’t good long-term. It’s criminal that some people view fertility rate as “Oh man, the tax base will be messed up!” as opposed to “Look at this beautiful new life,” but eh, money talks.
Automation
This is starting to gradually get more attention. ChatGPT burst the dam a bit, but I still think people’s heads are in the sand re: long-term job implications.
When there were labor market drops in the past 50 years, we would scream from the rooftops about:
“Immigration!”
“Technology!”
Those were the saviors. But as more countries get nationalist, which is happening, immigration is less of a potential savior. Technology might be a destroyer in the case of automation, and we don’t have enough kids being born for long-term success. And yes, we’re overpopulated as a planet, so maybe that’s good in some respects, but our graphs are all messed up in terms of elder population, especially in places like Japan — but increasingly the U.S.
These are the big stories of the moment. It’s not the Trump indictment or whatever new thing on TikTok CNN is trying to find talking heads to discuss. It’s about this stuff: migration, mobility, economics, fertility, automation, and more.
Your take?
With the declining birth rate and absolute refusal of most citizens to do the grimy nut necessary work (how many Anglos you see on a roof or on a vegetable farm in 105 degrees), it seems like we’re biting off our nose to spite our face by demonizing migrants.
Politically, I get it, it’s not a good thing in the long run for the GOP, and you have to wonder if even those jobs will be spared by AI, but this country either needs to develop a sensible immigration policy or dismantle the damned statue in New York harbor. I’m Irish-American, so my folks - as well as most of our folks - have been on the outside looking in the candy store window. I hate hypocrites.
A word about infertility. Normally, I would not venture an opinion to someone suffering something I have not. But you invite discussion, so here’s my two cents. Being able to impregnate a female does not a man nor a father make. Even a sniveling, cowardly rapist can do it. So can an effeminate gay person. It’s not a “masculine” trait, just a biological fact that all too often leaves the poor child the victim of negligence, rejection, and mental or physical cruelty. Where’s the manliness there? Personally I’m not a big fan of so-called masculinity. I’m more about decent people, regardless of gender.
But fatherhood is a completely different animal. To be a great father is one of the hardest challenges a man can face. I’m not saying I’m a “great” father, I’m not by any stretch. But I have striven toward that goal, and I have seen people who ARE great fathers, and it has nothing to do with sperm being Olympic swimmers. My brother is a great father to a granddaughter whose biological parents couldn’t make the grade. That girl is his reason for living. I recently learned via 23andMe that I have a half-brother (interesting thing to learn at the age of 77 lol). We share a biological mother, but his PARENTS adopted him.
He is a wonderful man with a big, wonderful and loving family, the result of an exceptional upbringing by parents with no biological connection to him whatsoever. Between the three of us brothers, he was the lucky one.
I guess what I’m saying is that there are lots of different ways to achieve fatherhood, and I fully understand your desire to be a biological father, but fatherhood - real fatherhood - is not about you - it’s about the child. Your masculinity, as a father, is the reflection of your influence for good in your child, regardless of how the two of you got together. A lot of the time that involves being in one place when, if left to consider only your own desires, you would rather be somewhere else - endless soccer games, hockey, baseball, football, volleyball, choir and band concerts, etc. etc.
It’s funny, but I never dreamed in my wildest imagination that I would ever read “Anne of the Green Gables.” But I am so thankful I did. It is a beautiful story about parenting. And Matthew, as shy and retiring as he was with everyone else, was a giant of a man and a phenomenal father to his little girl.
Okay, I got it out and I hope nothing I said is offensive. My intentions were anything but.