Most "Future Of Work" Discussions Are Complete Bullshit

It would be helpful to be more honest herein.

I got the above screenshot from the Make Work Better newsletter, and it’s in turn from a new Microsoft report on the future of work. Microsoft has been doing those reports for years now, and people like to write breathless analysis pieces on them, but they are usually fairly basic. I had a job in 2021 where we wrote about six reaction pieces to Microsoft’s future of work report. It was tedious. I eventually got laid off there, then looked about a year later and basically the entire executive team except for the founder was also gone. Oh well.

If you look at the screenshot, basically it is the least revolutionary thing you will ever look at. Phase 1, “human with assistant,” is what people have been doing since 2011. It’s called “SaaS” by many. If you want to frame this stuff just in terms of AI and the “coming AI revolution,” well, the reports are that half of university students are using GPT for assignments and papers. Maybe they edit the papers a smidge on the back-end. That would be, um, “human with assistant.” Phase 2 is basically where most non-luddite companies already are, and many have been there since about 2015. That’s where you justify some degree of layoffs via advanced tech (really to “please the Street”) and you rationalize it by saying you’re keeping the good people and removing the crap, and the good people will be augmented by tech. That theory has powered us through 11–12 years of corporate anxiety, but there are massive cracks in it — when AI does get “at-scale,” and even mom-and-pop shower tile companies that still use Excel begin using AI, I don’t personally know how long most Jobs will hold up to that. You already see the headlines about Spotify not letting managers ask for headcount if AI can do the job they want to hire for. That attitude will scale.

Phase III is also in play at companies, although a small percentage of them — maybe like 5–10%, max.

In general, the thing about work is that the main playbook doesn’t ever change that much, because the focus typically remains on these things:

• Making money

• Showcasing growth

• Their brand

• Cost-cutting when needed

• Compliance

• {In vague terms} Innovation

What changes is the inputs to the main playbook.